Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia

Modeling and predicting land use/cover change (LUCC) identifying its drivers have been a focus of research over the past few decades. In order to solve problem resource degradation in typical pastoral areas, reveal temporal spatial evolution characteristics LUCC, contradiction between man sustainable development, we analyze Gurvanbulag area Bulgan province, Mongolia, where grassland is relatively serious. The LUCC data 2000, 2010 2019 were obtained through interpreting human-computer interaction. On this basis, same binary logistic regression (BLR) results input into multi-criteria evaluation analytic hierarchy process (MCE_AHP) CLUE-S CA_Markov models. Current Trends (CT) Ecological Protection (EP) development scenarios used predict 2030 2040. show: (1) both models can effectively simulate 2019, model was significantly better than model. (2) From 2000 region dominated by decrease water growth other land, indicating that at risk degradation. (3) multi-scenario study, 2040, predicted EP scenario more effective protecting local ecological environment it easier achieve sustainability resources, CT scenario. Combined with policy demands prediction restraining degradation, higher model, former line need for latter.